An Italian View on Mr. Trump

Americans, and not just them, are stunned by the apparently unstoppable march of Donald Trump towards the presidency. From an Italian point of view, however, it all looks like a very unimaginative Hollywood remake of a twenty years old Italian movie: “Berlusconi, the Coming of the Second Christ”.

Being American, Trump is bigger, brasher and louder than our own diminutive Napoleon, but apart from size, they could be twins separated at birth. Billionaire posing as Messiah of the Common People, check, expert mass media manipulator, check, megalomaniac, check, despotic and despots lover, con man extraordinaire, consummate liar, serial philanderer, tax dodger, check check check check check. Really Hollywood? Is this blunt cut-and-paste job the best you can do? If I were Berlusconi, I would sue immediately for blatant copyright infringement.

So, under the assumption (and I admit that’s quite a big assumption given the obvious differences between Italy and the USA) that similar causes have similar effects, I decided to write a little note to warn my American friends on how they can expect to feel in the coming Trump age.

Embarrassed
My advice to those Americans who plan to move abroad in case of a Trump presidency is: stay put. It will be easier weathering the storm at home than becoming the permanent laughing stock of all your foreign acquaintances. I should know, I lived for 15 years abroad during which my foreign friends were apparently unable to stop marvelling at the stupidity of a people who would elect, and then re-elect, someone like Berlusconi. Better burn your passport now, unless you want to go through endless reruns of the following conversation: Foreign Friend: “Have you heard the latest about Berlusconi?”, Me: “Yeah, yeah, crazy isn’t it? But what a lovely day! Should we go for a run?”; Foreign Friend: “Cannot believe he won the elections, again.”. Me: “La la la la la, I can’t hear you. Tell you what, forget about the run, let’s go down to the pub and get drunk…”

Demoralised
It is personally demoralising to know that your democratically elected commander in chief is a crook and a self-obsessed prick. It makes you really doubt the basic tenets of your society “what is wrong with us?” and from there is just a short jump to “what is wrong with me?”. But it’s also demoralising in a deeper sense, it actually weakens the moral fiber of society. Italy was already a corrupt and authoritarian country, far closer to its Fascist past than should be the case for a modern European democracy. But at least, before Berlusconi, the general understanding was that we were moving away from that. What Berlusconi did was to evoke and embrace all the worst ghosts of our past. He removed the political taboo on fascist, xenophobic and corrupt politicians. He made them not only seem normal but almost an object of admiration. And what happens when the crooks and crazies rule? Ask yourself: how do we learn to behave in society? Is it by reading books? Or listening to sermons and academic lectures? No, it’s by imitating others, both our peers and people we look up to, the alpha males and women of our society. That’s how all primates learn, and we are no exception. So when your top alpha male happens to be a sexist, corrupt and authoritarian character, that attitude spreads widely and quickly. A fish rots from the head down and so do state bureaucracies and whole societies. Trump’s casual racism, barely disguised white-suprematism, disdain for the rule of law and proclivity to verbal and physical aggression, won’t stay in the White House. It will abundantly flow into your society, like corrosive sewage.

Poorer
The unique selling point of both Berlusconi and Trump is that they promise to foster a new age of abundance, being such successful entrepreneurs and jobs creators (“successful” should be understood as: good at avoiding ending up in prison while making money with shady deals and really great, when things go horribly wrong, at making other people pay for their mistakes). Berlusconi famously promised “one million jobs” and Trump is going to do great “deals” with emerging countries to bring back manufacturing and mining jobs to the USA.

The truth is that Berlusconi’s years were an economic disaster for Italy. Italian economy had already stalled and Berlusconi did nothing to improve things. The economic outcome of his twenty years of almost complete domination of Italian politics was zero growth. Under Berlusconi, Italy has become poorer, more indebted and economically weaker than ever. When he finally was kicked out of power, Italy was on the brink of financial and economic collapse. Sad!

But why would an entrepreneur fail in what should be their most natural arena, economic development?

Because they don’t have a clue. The idea that being good at managing a company makes you skilled at managing a country’s economy is a popular but totally baseless myth. Not only the two sectors have little in common but in fact some of the most basic instincts of a successful entrepreneur are exactly opposite to what is required to run an economy. For example, in case of an economic contraction, an entrepreneur will cut down expenses, get rid of surplus man-power and hoard capital. The State should do exactly the opposite: increase investment, cut taxes, widen the social protection network, trying to balance the books during a recession is a recipe for disaster. And naturally the opposite applies to times of plenty. Just when entrepreneurs get excited and carried away by fast growth and easy money, the State should cool things down and keep a much closer watch on bankers and house builders. Similarly, while it might make sense for an entrepreneur to have a cavalier attitude to debt and do whatever in its power to postpone and even avoid repayment, the same attitude from a State is self-defeating. Trump has proposed to fix USA’s public debt by forcing a deal with its creditors, in other terms by partially defaulting (a practice in which he has real expertise), something that would cause untold damage to the financial and economic system not just of the USA but of the whole world.

Because they are the wrong kind of entrepreneur. Berlusconi made his money in real estate and later in commercial TV. Trump is also a real estate tycoon and TV personality. Real estate tycoons make their money thanks to their, often corrupt, connections with politicians, to the financial leverage obtained via large bank loans and their ability to sell over-hyped properties, and in their case also trashy TV shows, to a gullible public. They are not innovators, they are no Edison, Steve Jobs or Elon Musk. They don’t develop new technology, create new markets or improve production systems. They are not skilled manufacturers exporting to open and competitive international markets. In fact, though they strive to present themselves as apostles of economic liberalism, they hate open markets. They prosper by destroying fair competition using their privileged access to political patronage and finance. These backward attitudes carry on in their politics. Trump’s fanciful idea to start a trade war with America’s major commercial partners would stifle America’s most competitive exporters. Rolling back immigration would endanger both traditional and high-tech American businesses. A politically expedient but misguided attempt at preserving outdated modes of production would not bring any old job back but it would do wonders to hinder the dynamic industries that are America’s future.

As Italians learned to their cost, there is neither honour nor glory in putting an arrogant asshole in a position of power.

It would be nice if Americans were to spare themselves and the world the same yuuge mistake.

 
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